The investigators examined Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores and undergraduate grade point averages (UGPAs) from a large representative sample of students in US and Canadian MD-granting schools, and looked for correlations to multiple educational outcomes. These outcomes included: numeric grade in pre-clerkship courses, first attempt USMLE Step 1 grade, clerkship examination scores, clerkship GPAs, and first attempt USMLE Step 2 CK grade. Probably the most important outcome, from the standpoint of the student, was “progress in medical school” which was defined as “completion of coursework on time or within one extra year; passing relevant licensure exams on the first attempt; and experiencing no withdrawal or dismissal from medical school for academic reasons.” MCAT scores were a moderate-to-strong predictor of all measured outcomes, including those occurring during clerkship year or after. For most outcomes, MCAT scores were a slightly stronger predictor than UGPA, and the combination of MCAT and UGPA was more predictive than either measure alone. Importantly, MCAT scores were quite predictive of medical student outcome across a range of student demographics, including gender, race, and parental education. — Laura Willett, MD
Hanson JT, Busche K, Elks ML, Jackson-Williams LE, Liotta RA, Miller C, Morris CA, Thiessen B, Yuan K. The Validity of MCAT Scores in Predicting Students’ Performance and Progress in Medical School: Results from a Multisite Study. Acad Med. 2022 May 24. doi: 10.1097/ACM.0000000000004754. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 35612915.